Beating The Bubble

Things you will learn:

• Why it's important to understand the bubble stage of a poker tournament
• Which hands you should play around this crucial period

Sit & gos are an ideal starting point for beginners. They can offer an excellent return on investment, since there tends to be plenty of chancers trying their luck and your chances of cashing are fairly good. In a typical nine or 10-seat online game first place gets 50 percent of the prize pool, while second and third places get 30 percent and 20 percent respectively.

But as you can see, the payouts are drastically warped, compared to conventional multi-table tournaments. The first six or seven players get nothing, but then there's a sudden leap to 20 percent for third (at which point 60 percent of the prize pool has been allocated). The second place finisher takes an additional 10 percent of the prize pool and the first scoops a whopping 30 percent on top of that!

The way you play Sit & Gos is going to be different to cash games, where your chips have a fixed monetary value. Here, the value of your stack is not fixed and floats around depending not only on how much you win or lose, but what point in the tournament you are at, how many other players remain, and what their stack sizes are.

In a 10-player $100 event each player's stack has a $100 value as there is $1,000 in the pot. However, at the end the winning player will have all the chips but will only get to walk away with 50 percent of the $1,000 prize pool, meaning the value of his huge stack of chips has decreased by half (although you'd still be happy making five times your initial stake). Similarly, a player who manages to sneak into the money gets at least $200, even though he might only have a fraction of his starting chips!

What this illustrates is a fundamental concept in tournament poker and Sit & Gos in particular: chips change value over the course of an event.

If you don't adjust your game accordingly you will miss out. Whereas the payout scale rises smoothly in tournaments through the top 10 percent of the field, the small number of players in Sit & Gos means the bubble alters the value of your stack far quicker. With fewer players and just a few prizes, it's much easier to grasp how this should shift your game plan.

Most decisions are common sense so always pay attention to how your chip stack compares to your opponents' and the escalating blinds. For instance, if you're nursing a short stack on the bubble you should try and hold on for the money if there's a stack that's going to be committed on its next big blind and therefore likely to bust before you.

On the other hand, when you've got a big stack you're in a position to bully the remaining players mercilessly. If they choose to play a hand with you they risk elimination on the bubble and get nothing for their troubles. Because each individual chip is worth less the more that you have, it isn't a disaster if you lose a chunk for the chance to knock someone out.

By the time the bubble is reached the average stack is usually just 10 big blinds or less, which is classic ‘all-in-or-fold’ territory. At this point you have to push with any hand that you choose to play to show other players that you are committed to the hand or get rid of it. There's no limping. This way you give yourself the best chance of picking up the valuable blinds with minimal risk of confrontation. You don't want to get into the poker equivalent of chicken... and lose.

Correct bubble play is all about your stack size relative to your opponents’. As a short stack you need to assess your chances of making the money by looking at how long you can survive before you become hopelessly short. Make sure you enter a 'nothing to lose' mode before you hit that low point by making strategic pushes with less-than-premium hands.

Target the next shortest player. They won't want to double you up, as it will almost certainly leapfrog you over them sucking them towards the bubble spot.

If you're one of two or three short/medium stacks you need to vary your play between attacking those weaker than you and protecting your chips in the hopes of coasting into the money. And make sure you avoid the largest stack, who will be able to knock you out in one fell swoop.

If you have the biggest stack however, all the rules go out the window and you can have a fun and highly profitable time pushing around the shorter stacks. Depending on how much variance you can stand, any time you have a significant block of chips more than the players you are attacking and their stacks are less than 10 big blinds you can start moving in with a wide variety of hands in the knowledge that they will be unable to call you without very strong holdings.

The most likely scenario here is that you will gradually gain a stronger and stronger hold over the bubble, but even if you're called you can still get lucky. Even if you're called and lose you simply have to go back to being one of the short or mid-sized stacks.

Ideally though, if you get away with stealing the blinds a few times you can gradually build towards the dream bubble position where you have an overwhelming chip lead against three short-stacks who are essentially hanging on for second. At this stage you can more or less start moving all-in every hand when players fold to you.

Even if you lose an all-in you'll still be a significant chip leader. As the second biggest stack will be waiting for one of the short stacks to get knocked out you can resume your tactics and keep building until the bubble bursts, at which point you will have given yourself a fantastic opportunity to go on and win.

Think you've got Sit & Gos cracked or want to hear what a pro would do? Here are a few problems for you to look at. Have a think before looking at the answers and see if you're ready to be a Sit & Go star.

1) You're down to just four players on the bubble with blinds of 200/400 and all  players are currently level-pegging on 2,500 chips. The action is folded to you in the small blind with 2-7 offsuit against a solid player in the big blind. Do you fold or go all-in?

2) Playing four-handed on the bubble with blinds at 100/200 you have 2,000 chips and are on the button. Your opponents in the blinds have 1,000 each and the player under the gun has the remaining 6,000. He's been moving all-in almost every hand and does so again. You have A-K. Do you fold or call all-in?

3) Playing four-handed on the bubble with blinds of 200/400, you're down to 1,600 and on the button with Q-6 suited. The player under the gun has 4,000 and folds, leaving you up against the small and big blinds, who have 2,400 and 2,000 respectively. Do you fold or go all-in?

1 All-in! This is a bit of a trick question, as you should go all-in here irrespective of your cards assuming the big blind is a solid player who understands the implications of bubble play. This is profitable because the blinds are so high and the range of hands the big blind can call with so low, that most of the time you will be picking up an extra 600 chips and still have a chance to win even when called. It also means that when you win the blinds you can't then be knocked out, which puts you in a much stronger position for the next hand, where you can push against two players with more hands based on that knowledge and try to build a dominating lead.

2 Fold! Amazing as it sounds, even if your opponent is pushing every hand you should still be folding everything in this spot except high pairs like A-A, K-K or Q-Q, which (most of the time) are able to safely crush the two undercards he will have moved in with a fair percentage of the time. A-K or big slick on the other hand will not fare so well against two random cards as your opponent's cards will often be very live and in a position to eliminate you 30-40% of the time, which, given the state of the two short stacks would be an equity disaster. Lots of players make this kind of mistake on the bubble - to really turn a profit in STTs you must alter your mindset to bubble play.

3 All-in! Q-6 suited might not be the best hand but it's above average and every aspect of your position dictates this is the time to make a play. The small blind can comfortably fold unless he has a monster and, while the big blind will be getting good odds to call, he will be crippled if he loses, and still has a playable stack if he folds. If you fold this hand you won't have enough chips to go through the blinds again without being crippled yourself and will often be forced to go all-in on the next hand against the big stack anyway. It will also be much easier for the big stack to call you, and you gain less by winning the chips from him than the other short stacks.