Implied Odds

Things you will learn:

• How to understand the concept of implied odds

Poker is a situational game and the hands you should be playing will depend a lot on the types of players at your table. Your goal in poker is to capitalise on other players’ mistakes and one of the most useful tools for doing so in deep-stacked cash games are implied odds.

Implied odds are the ratio between the amount of money you expect to win by the end of the hand and the amount of money that's required to make the next call.

Let’s say you’re facing a pre-flop raise of $20. The raiser has $500 in front of them and you have them covered. You believe that if you hit your hand you can win your opponent’s entire stack. So your implied odds are 500/20 or 25/1.

The problem, however, is that implied odds are only relevant in certain situations.

Calling stations and maniacs are usually the types of players against whom you have the greatest implied value in a pot. If your opponent is a rock or is playing tight for any reason, there are no implied odds. Also, only certain starting hands are conducive to getting paid off when they hit. Hands like suited-connectors and small pairs are the best hands to achieve maximum implied value because they are well disguised if they hit.

Let’s use an example to illustrate some of these points.

The blinds are $2/$4 and you have open-raised pre-flop to $15 with pocket fives. Your tight opponent then raises, making it $100 to go. You decide to call the extra $85 because your opponent has $1,400 left in chips. You think that you have 'implied value', because if you flop your set you will win all his chips.

But are you right?

If your opponent has A-K or pocket 10s, your implied value is probably zero if they miss the flop. Essentially you are calling $85 to win $121, not $1,400. This makes the call incorrect because the odds of you flopping a set are 7/1 and you are only getting about 1.4/1 on your money.

The answer would be different if you knew that your opponent had a big hand and was going to commit all their chips post-flop.

Let’s change to scenario. Your opponent is a tight, predictable player who has limped in early position to in a $1/$2 cash game. After you raised from the button to $10 with pocket fives, they re-raised to $25. This is big enough to thin the field but small enough to induce a call or two.

You know from playing this player that they have a big pair here. You may only be getting 2/1 on your pre-flop call, but if you hit your hand you could win 15 times that. Implied odds exist here, but only because of the specific circumstances surrounding the hand.

In this situation, on a 7-5-2 flop they will likely pay you off with your set.

Don’t let implied odds be an excuse for making loose calls with small pairs and suited connectors. Remember you are looking for specific situations where you will get paid post-flop.

In the following example, we're playing in a $1/ $2 No-Limit Hold'em cash game. We're on the button with 6♥ 7♥. An under-the-gun player limps and we raise to $8. The under-the-gun player re-raises to $16, and we call.

But as you'll see when the flop comes and our opponent bets again, we fold.

Why? The flop of Q♣ 8♣ 2♥ did not improve our hand.

Had the flop been Q♥ 8♣ 6♥, we would have been prepared to re-raise and get the money in on the flop, with both straight and flush draws. As it was, we made the right decision.