Value Betting

Things you will learn:

• How to calculate your 'outs', and know whether it's worth carrying on

You probably think of being on a draw as either a straight draw or a flush draw, but at the end of the day, anytime you’re aren’t winning, you’re drawing. So, with that in mind, you could be drawing with a small pair, overcards, second or third pair, a pair and a gut-shot. Essentially, you’ll be drawing or chasing with any hand that isn’t in the lead.

The real question is should you continue chasing or should you lick your wounds, fold and live to fight another day? Then, of course, this will bring us to the next question - if you are going to continue to chase, what’s the best course of action?

After the flop hits and you decide that you’re probably behind, you’ll need to ask yourself two things to properly decide if you should continue on with the hand.:

1. How many outs do you have to get the probable winning hand?
2. How big is the pot or, better yet, how big will the pot be?

Based on the pre-flop action and the action on the flop, you’ll have to start putting your opponents on hands. Based on what you put your opponent on, you can try and figure out how many outs you have.

• Flop: J♥ 9♥ 2♣
• Your hand: Q♦ 10♠

How many outs do you have?

If you thought to yourself that you didn’t have enough information, you’d be right. The pre-flop raiser has been very aggressive and you think he probably has an over-pair. Two other players have called his bet and raise so you have to think of what they might have.

Obviously, there are eight cards that give you the nut straight, but one of your opponents might be on a flush draw so the K and 8 of hearts is no good. On top of that, if you put the pre-flop raiser on an over-pair, the possibility exists that he could have kings.

So how do you calculate your outs in this case? We say you have six clean outs, but because of the chance that two of the kings could be in our opponent’s hand, we'll reduce our outs by one to five. We'll give ourself half an out when it could be questionable. So now, we know we have five clean outs to hit our straight and probably win the pot.

• Flop: J♣ 6♦ 5♣
• Your hand: A♣ K♣

Two players call your button raise. How many outs do you have here? We have nine clean outs (nine clubs) and two over-cards which could give us six more outs. If an ace or a king comes, will that be enough to win the pot. Isn’t there a chance one of your opponents has K-J or A-J? One of them could even have flopped a set.

In this case, we’ll give ourselves half an out for each out which amounts to three outs - three aces + three kings). We’ll play this hand as if we had 12 outs to the winner.

Counting outs can be complicated. It is definitely an inexact science, but it is the basis for knowing whether we should continue on with a hand or not. Estimating what your opponent might have will affect the number of outs you have. A good rule of thumb: cut an out in half when it may or may not be good.

Now that we know how many outs we have, we can figure out if we have the proper pot odds to continue on with the hand. Keep track of the pot - depending on the type of game you’re playing in, how likely is it for your opponents to keep putting chips into the pot? How likely is it that the guy who just called a flop bet will call a turn bet, especially if you hit your hand.

Remember we don’t care how big the pot is, we care how big it will be. Playing hands out of position hampers your ability to estimate the pot - yet another reason to play more hands in position. After you determine how many outs you have and how big the pot will be, you can correctly deduce whether you should continue chasing or not.

If the pot is laying you enough odds to make playing the hand profitable then you should play. In fact, if you don’t you are costing yourself money. But beware of reverse implied odds - many times the card that you think makes your hand actually gives your opponent a better hand.

You raised pre-flop and four players call, so you decide to call from the big blind.

• Your hand: 8♥ 9♥
• Flop: 10♥ J♣ 4♠

You get excited, because you’ve flopped an open-ended straight draw, but beware. If the queen falls, you may have a very expensive second-best hand. It isn’t unlikely for the pre-flop raiser to have A-K and if he does, the queen does nothing for you except cost you money. In this case, be very cautious and play the hand as if you only had four outs.

Other times when you should beware that you might have just made a second-best hand is if you hit your overcard, but someone makes two pair, or if you make two pair but someone makes their straight. And if you make trips, but someone makes a full house.

Reverse implied odds can be very expensive. If you can avoid situations that might give you a good second-best hand, you’ll save a lot of money.

Another caveat when chasing is hitting your hand and still losing. Players will too often count their outs and figure if they hit, they win, but that isn’t always true. Often, you'll hit your hand and then get outdrawn on the river. Sets will become full houses, flushes will become bigger flushes - there are many ways you can chase, catch up and then get caught again.

Of course, keep this in mind: you think you’re drawing. You think you clearly have the worst hand, but maybe, just maybe you’re wrong and you already have the best hand. If you raise with A-K of clubs and you and three opponents see a flop of 6-6-2 with two clubs, there is a good chance you have the best hand. You obviously have a great draw, but don’t dismiss the chance of you still being ahead.

Some basic guidelines about chasing - with eight or more outs, you can really bet hard on the flop. Your hand is strong enough to go all the way to the river. In fact if you’re in position, do everything possible to try and get yourself a free card on the turn.

• How loose or tight is the table after the flop? The tighter your table, the more conservative you’ll be when deciding to continue with your drawing hand. The looser the table post-flop, the more you can chase
  
  
• How passive or aggressive is the table after the flop? Again, if your table is very aggressive, you’ll want to chase less because your opponents will make it expensive for you and you’ll rarely get a free card. If your table is passive, you can chase a lot more knowing that you’ll rarely face raises and you’ll get a lot more free cards making drawing far more profitable
  
  
• If you chase and miss, can you bluff? Of course you can, but keep a couple of things in mind. Don’t bluff a bad player. Don’t bluff someone that can’t be bluffed. Make sure the bluff makes sense. If you bluff and get caught, show your hand - it’s a good advertisement

Without getting too involved, a basic rule of thumb when chasing is to be aggressive. If you’re going to call, why not raise? Often, the best decision is to raise or fold while the only bad decision is to call. The semi-bluff is an extremely powerful play that can be very hard to defend against.