Results Orientated Thinking

Things you will learn:

• Why succeeding at poker is about more than winning pots

Just because you've won several games in a row or taken down a big tournament, it doesn't mean you've made all the right decisions along the way.

There is a particular type of mistake that is extremely common in the poker world. It's been around since the first time the game was played and it's increasingly prevalent today - results-oriented thinking.

To illustrate what it is, let's take a silly example.

For example, one Saturday, you buy a lottery ticket. That night, three of your numbers come up and you rake in £10. You may then think, "Great. I have cleverly picked the right numbers. I'll do the lottery every week. I'll be rich." Of course, this is ridiculous. If you did the lottery every week, you're just going to be a lot poorer at the end of the year. Playing the lottery is a negative expectation decision - for every £1 you put in, you can expect to get less than £1 back at the end of the year.

This is an example of results-oriented thinking - that is, you played the lottery, you won money, so playing the lottery must equal winning money. The lottery example may seem ridiculous, but this kind of thinking happens all the time in poker. Here, we'll going to discuss four common situations where it happens, then talk about how you can avoid results-oriented thinking yourself.

How often have you heard a player say something like, "I love K-9 suited. I always seem to win with it!"

This is an example of results-oriented thinking. Early in the person's poker development, they may have won a key pot or two with this hand, perhaps by playing it more aggressively than was warranted or by drawing out on a much bigger hand. Their mind has associated the hand with the thrill of winning, so they go out of their way to play their 'lucky' hand in almost any future situation.

These so-called 'lucky hands' can cost you a lot of money if you become reluctant to fold them because you've won with them in the past. The truth is, no hand is luckier than any other, but some hands are significantly stronger in certain situations.

That isn't to say you shouldn't randomise your play by choosing a hand to bluff with in the right conditions.

You also see results-orientated thinking when somebody wins a major tournament. The magazines often argue that the winner is an excellent player, pointing out the brilliant plays that won them the trophy. On the internet, you may see the same player heavily criticised because one bluff went wrong that was televised. But either could be true.

In the $5,000 Pot-Limit Hold'em event at the 2007 WSOP, Allen Cunningham eliminated Jeffrey Lisandro to win the bracelet, holding K-9 offsuit against Lisandro's pocket queens, all-in pre-flop. If you judged Cunningham based on the results of that hand alone, you'd probably think he was a bad player who got extremely lucky to beat Lisandro. But in reality Cunningham is one of the best Hold'em players alive. Don't be too quick to judge.

Back at the table, another mistake made by amateur players manifests itself like this: Player A raises pre-flop, Player B calls and the flop comes Q♥ 10♣ 2♦. Player A checks, Player B bets, Player A folds - showing a pair of jacks. "I hate jacks,"' he says. "I always lose with Jacks."

This is a classic example of results-oriented thinking. Pocket jacks are a difficult hand to play and it's easy for them to get outdrawn. But that doesn't mean you should play scared when you hold such a hand and fold because you've been outdrawn, or have run into a bigger hand in the past.

In our example, Player B's range will obviously include hands with a queen in them, but they could also have a hand like pocket nines, A-10 suited, a straight draw like K-J or even a complete bluff (the looser the player, the wider the range of hands). It's a mistake to automatically check and fold to a bet on such a board against most players.

If you ever go on internet poker forums, you'll have seen many examples of results-oriented thinking. For example, a player posts this hand: "I was on the button, holding pocket kings in a $5 Sit & Go with the blinds at 20/40. A player in middle position moved all-in for 1,500 chips. I called, but he showed pocket aces and I was eliminated. Should I have folded and waited for a better spot?"

This player has made two key mistakes. First, he's posted the results of the hand, which will taint all the replies he gets. Some players will post answers like, "Yes, you should fold," simply because they know what actually happened - a good example of results-oriented thinking. Secondly, he is doubting his play simply because he lost the hand, when clearly he made the right decision given the information available to him and given a typical opponent's range of hands.

When discussing hands on the internet, don't give away the results and don't doubt yourself because you lost the pot. Similarly, you shouldn't necessarily congratulate yourself for making the right decision if you win a pot. Only after you've analysed the hand in question objectively can you know for sure whether you did the right thing.

First of all, take the time to learn about randomness and the odds. This will help to develop a full understanding of what constitutes a profitable situation and what doesn't, which will help you to disregard the results of a hand when analysing it. The only thing that matters is whether you made the correct decision or not, the results are irrelevant.

Next, learn to detach yourself emotionally. Controlling your emotions will help you treat your wins with the joy they deserve. You should also hold back from blaming you losses on other people.

Finally, give your opponents the benefit of the doubt until you've played a few hands with them. Judging a player based on just a couple of hands can be a terrible mistake that can cost you money.