Causing Confusion

Things you will learn:

• How poker players have expectations in certain situations as to how you will act
• How to work against these expectations to cause confusion in your opponents
• How you can use tools to make sure your blind raises are truly random to keep your opponents guessing
• How to unbalance your opponents by sending out conflicting messages

If you can cause confusion in an opponent, you’re a long way towards bringing their game down a notch or two.

Most people hate uncertainty and winning poker players are no different. They prefer to be sure they’re ahead before committing their precious chips to the pot. As you might expect, uncertainty creates stress, which in turn disrupts thought processes and stops players from performing to the best of their abilities. Lack of information, or conflicting information, are the main causes of such uncertainty and when faced with a big decision at the poker table one thing you want to avoid is doubt.

Psychologically speaking, we, as humans, have mental representations (referred to as ’scripts’) stored in our memory for all anticipated situations that we find ourselves in, and this helps to reduce our feelings of uncertainty. For example, each time you go into a restaurant, instead of having to start from scratch and figure out what you need to do, you unconsciously call up a ’script’ for this event so you instantly know what needs to be done and how people will act. If the waiter gave you the bill before you’d even sat down, let alone ordered, you’d be immediately confused as your internal script tells you that this is not the way things should be.

These principles can easily be applied to the game of poker. Try enhancing your chances by causing confusion in your opponents by messing with their ’scripts’. You can even try it out online. Given that players have a limited time to make each decision, if you can cause uncertainty in your opponent it’s very possible to get them to err on the side of caution and fold their winning hand (assuming they don’t have a ‘monster’).

For example, your opponent has just put in a continuation bet post-flop and the action is on you. You want to make a re-raise bluff to steal the pot. Wisdom has it that the longer a player is taking to make a decision, the more likely they are to fold. Instead of putting in a considered re-raise, leave your bet until the last moment as this will have the effect of invoking the ’script’ in your opponent that you are going to fold. Your last-second bet will then have them mentally scrambling to decide what to do. The added time-pressure is even more likely to make them err on the side of caution and fold - even though they may have the best hand. This isn’t guaranteed to work, of course, and it’s essential you consider all the normal information at your disposal before making a move.

Causing confusion in your opponents is a good way to give you an edge, especially against intermediate players. For example, take the convention touted by many poker tomes that you should always raise by the same amount to prevent opponents from differentiating your holding. Psychologically speaking, it can be more effective to vary your bets to keep your opponents in a state of confusion. If you vary it enough - seemingly at random - they will stop trying to see a pattern in your play, which will reduce the chance of them ‘working you out’.

However, you need to keep your raises truly random if you want to try this out. Humans are incredibly bad at generating random sequences, so even when you think you’re being random there is normally some kind of fixed pattern you’re subconsciously following (which may be why poker books tell us to keep the bets the same size). To avoid this trap, generate a random sequence of raises in advance of playing, or rely on something else to generate the size of the raise for you (eg, look at where the second hand is on your watch: 0-15 seconds equals a raise of two-and-a-half times the big blind; 16-30 seconds equals a raise of three-and-a-quarter times the big blind, etc).

Another way to unbalance your opponents is to send out conflicting messages. You can be as subtle or as blatant about this as you see fit. For example, when first sitting down at a Sit & Go table online (assuming you’ve never played with the players before), you could type in to the chat box something along the lines of, ‘I hope you’re all going to be kind to me tonight - this is my first game online.’ Whether they initially believe it or not, you’ve sown the seed that you’re a new player (and first impressions are difficult to dislodge), so when you make a ’squeeze’ play later on, your opponent, who has to decide whether or not to call you, will be uncertain whether this so-called new player is capable of making such a move. As the time bar ebbs away, they will most likely take the safe option and fold - provided they’re a good player and not a maniac or a calling station.

Anything you can do to stop your opponents working you out is a good thing and messing with their heads through the use of confusion and false information is an excellent method. Just make sure you don’t confuse yourself in the process.